The agency that oversees prediction markets has investigated Polymarket trades on Biden pardons and the Iran war--and even more potential insider trading at Google, documents obtained by WIRED show. The US government launched at least three previously unreported investigations into trading on the prediction market Polymarket, according to documents obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request. Voting records from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, shed new light on how the government approaches these investigations. In early May, CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved an order allowing the agency's enforcement division to launch a private investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket event contracts related to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden. The order granted permission to take testimony, obtain subpoenas, administer oaths, and require the production of documents in the course of the investigation.

Look Up Back to School Mashable's Best: E-readers, robovacs, laptops, earbuds, smart home and more Mashable Selects Say More Trending Now Good Connection: Uplifting stories for a digital age Creator Playbook Switch Off Mashable Voices Safety Net Versus All Series Polymarket and Kalshi face possible regulation as Supreme Court'monitors the situation' Prediction markets regulated as gambling platforms by individual states? Shannon Connellan is Mashable's Senior Editor, General Assignments, based in London. She has been Mashable's UK Editor (and still manages the illustrious UK team) and Australia Editor, but emotionally, she lives searching for . A Tomatometer-approved critic, Shannon writes about entertainment, tech, social good, science, culture, and Australian horror, and loves to nerd out with movie stars, filmmakers, and TV creators . SCOTUS is the focus for state regulators aimed at Kalshi.

Michele Spagnuolo was arrested for alleged insider trading on Polymarket, but the Switzerland-based engineer says he was simply gambling--activity that is beyond the reach of US commodities law. Michele Spagnuolo, the Google engineer arrested in May by US authorities for alleged insider trading on Polymarket, is making a new bold bet. On Wednesday, his legal team filed a motion to dismiss the charges against him. Spagnuolo isn't outright denying that he made money using internal information from Google. Instead, his legal team says that the wagers were not financial instruments subject to regulation by the United States' Commodities Exchange Act but rather good old-fashioned international betting that the US has no authority over.

From threats to the safety of poll workers to voters who can't distinguish between odds and results, prediction markets are already scrambling the political process. When Jim Allen, the elections director for Delaware County, Pennsylvania, recently ran a training session for poll workers, he began a conversation about a topic he'd never previously had to address during training: prediction markets . "There was one person who stood up, and they said, 'Well, what if we just want to make a minor bet on what turnout will be, that'll keep things interesting?' And we said: 'No, this is all bad,'" Allen, who oversees 383 precincts, recounts. As a result, Allen and the board of elections in Delaware County amended the oaths signed by people involved in elections to include "an affirmation that the workers have no direct or indirect interests in any bets, wagers, or prediction markets."

Jacob Fortinsky, the CEO and cofounder of the new prediction market Novig, says his outfit isn't like those other markets. Twenty-eight-year-old Jacob Fortinsky has been busy. "I was a groomsman at two weddings this weekend," he tells me over Zoom. Also, the sports trading company he runs, Novig, launched its prediction market last week, facilitating $18 million in trading volume on its first day. Today, Novig launches a "responsible trading framework" in its exchange rulebook, codifying its guardrails as part of its effort to be seen as a kinder, gentler prediction market player.

From pessimism around dating to AI reshaping culture, cyber-ethnographer Ruby Thelot tells WIRED why people are putting too much stock into things that go viral. For the last decade on social media, Ruby Thelot has asked himself the same questions when he encounters viral content online: Is this an ad? Is this an actual trend or just a fluke? While trends like " 6-7 " and " looksmaxxing " have recently broken containment, not every new term or subcultural phenomenon has real mainstream staying power. Remember, in years past, when tech bros tried to make NFTs a thing? Or that period when audio chat apps like Clubhouse were pitched as the future of social media but quickly flamed out? ( A prediction WIRED was not immune to.)

One of Kalshi's most prominent traders tells WIRED he's swearing off Spotify-related markets until the issue is resolved. Top Kalshi trader Caleb Davies usually speaks to the press about how prediction markets help him rake in money. The Minneapolis-based IT worker estimates he's made $1.2 million overall across different prediction platforms, with $414,000 in winnings from Kalshi's culture markets alone. He especially enjoys wagering on music charts, because he carefully analyzes Spotify data to pick winners. "Every single morning, I'm going in, downloading the data, and updating my projections," he tells WIRED.

Prediction Market Philosophers Got What They Wanted. Getting the future right is now big business. But at a festival in the Bay Area, forecasters worry that sports markets could take the whole industry down. On June 11, Kalshi released a buzzy ad featuring noted New York Knicks fan Timothée Chalamet. It was a zeitgeist-capturing moment for prediction markets, akin to the 2022 Super Bowl, when seemingly every commercial featured a celebrity shilling crypto.

Americans Are Trading Billions of Dollars on Polymarket's Banned Offshore Platform It's the first estimate of how many Americans are sneaking onto Polymarket's banned crypto-based platform. Approximately 30 percent of the trading volume on Polymarket comes from the United States, according to a new study--an eye-popping number, considering that none of those people are legally allowed to use the crypto -based platform. The study, conducted by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, estimated that people in the US funneled between $10.6 to $26.7 billion through Polymarket. To track the platform's activity, Crane looked at what appeared to be US-based trades on offshore prediction market platforms from May 2025 to the end of April 2026. He found that many of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket were US-centric, including those covering US elections and sporting events.

According to federal prosecutors, Michele Spagnuolo made more than $1 million on the prediction market platform using confidential information about Google Search traffic. A Google security engineer has been charged with crimes stemming from allegedly placing trades on Polymarket using confidential internal information from the tech giant. Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian citizen, was arrested this morning in New York, as first reported by ABC News. Spagnuolo is charged with one count each of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. He has worked at Google since 2014 and was based out of the company's Zurich, Switzerland, offices.